1. Global Perspectives: Central Theme: “Is global cooperation in trade still possible?”
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How will trade differences be resolved to promote multi-lateral trade in aluminum?
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The OECD continues to point to industrial subsidies within many countries, how will the playing field be leveled?
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How will decarbonization be integrated into trade agreements?
2. Macro-Economy: Central Theme: “Coping with inflation after a long absence “
3. Primary Aluminum Supply-Demand: Central Theme: “Is the era of China systemic surplus over?”
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Is the era of Chinese export surplus over?
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China primary production cap and growing rotation of investment from primary to recycling
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China’s introspective view on future growth driven by domestic consumption and not exports
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Scarcity of supply in the World outside China, the surplus of the GFC is gone
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Outlook for LME and SHFE futures prices as an incentive price for restarts and greenfield investment
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Outlook for physical premiums given the influences of Section 232 and carbon taxation
4. Recycled Aluminum: Central Theme: “Rising importance in a carbon-constrained world”
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Challenges facing secondary processors with demise of ICE
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Absorbing the growing supply of ABS and Class scraps
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Potential for UBC deposit and game-changing effect
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Substitution effect of recycling for primary in decarbonization
5. Supply Chain: Central Theme: “Global supply chains under stress, temporary or paradigm shift?”
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How long with the global container dislocation effect continue?
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Are domestic truck costs permanently shifting higher due to driver shortages and will autonomous trucks be the answer?
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Are US ports capable of coping with the offshore dependency of our supply chains?
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Will Mexico be the first beneficiary of "on-shoring" to North America versus domestic investment?
6. Decarbonization: Central Theme: "Changing material choices in a carbon-constrained world"
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How carbon costs radically change the cost curve
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Shift of trade flow into EU and other markets with carbon border adjustment mechanisms; how the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism works, and could it spread to other jurisdictions?
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Does this kill China’s ability to compete in those markets?
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Debate over low carbon versus high premium pricing
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How financing will drive decarbonization
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Recycled content’s role in reducing the carbon intensity of semi-fabricated and cast products
7. Demand Growth Opportunities: Central Theme: “Multiple paths to high growth in this era of fast changing markets”
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Alternative energy - outlook for growth in solar and wind as a driver of aluminum
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Automotive demand - transition from ICE to EV
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Can demand - is the surge in aluminum can demand sustainable?
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Construction - when does sustainability permeate basic construction demand choice?
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Competing Material threats - is there a real concern over material substitution?