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Agenda 2017

15:00 - 17:00
Key Consumer Sector Workshop

A CRU panel of experts present and discuss market outlooks for key steel consuming industries and the related impact on steel consumption in the short and long term.  The Workshop will include:

  • A deep-dive analysis of a range of key North American steel end-use industries: Automotive, construction & infrastructure, energy, domestic goods
  • Carbon and stainless steel consuming sector appraisals
  • In-depth content and discussion, delivered in a setting that facilitates an exchange of opinions

Michael Finch, Stainless Steel Flat Products Monitor and Market Outlook Editor, CRU
Chris Houlden, Research Manager, Semi-finish & Finished Steel, CRU
Lynn Lupori, Head of Metals Consulting, North America, CRU
Alex Laugharne, Principal Consultant, Consulting, CRU

08:55 - 09:00
Chairman's opening remarks

Chris Houlden, Research Manager, Semi-finish & Finished Steel, CRU

09:00 - 10:30
Panel discussion: Creating success out of uncertainty

Policy and market related uncertainty are constant features of any market. With significant questions as yet unanswered both here and in China with regard to Section 232, infrastructure, supply side reforms and environmental controls amongst others. There are considerable upside and downside risks to forecasts.  This session will analyse this issue of uncertainty from two perspectives:

  • How companies from across the supply chain view current risks and opportunities and are planning for potential risks and opportunities for their businesses 
  • What do successful companies have in common and which steel market strategies have provided the basis of that success? 

David Cheney, President, Bedrock Industries
Dave Sumoski, Executive Vice President of Merchant and Rebar Products, Nucor Corporation
Roy Berlin, President and Owner, Berlin Metals

11:00 - 11:20
US Economy: Demographics, energy and America first

  • Consumer demand fundamentals are changing
  • US energy output has altered the industrial landscape
  • New priorities have implications for monetary and fiscal policy

Lynn Lupori, Head of Metals Consulting, North America, CRU
Lisa Morrison, Principal Economist, CRU

11:20 - 12:45
Panel discussion: How policy will influence domestic demand

  • What are the short and long-term impacts of deep tax cuts – what can history tell us about what to expect?
  • Existing CAFE standards are fixed until 2021- to what extent will light weighting and EV trends be totally entrenched by then?
  • Will the market support increased infrastructure spend? What are the implications of 'Buy American' and greater enforcement of the ‘melted and poured in America’ clause for mills, re-rollers, service centers and projects?
  • Energy regulations have been rolled back – to what extent will growth continue in the tubular and energy related products market? 

Lynn Lupori, Head of Metals Consulting, North America, CRU
Lisa Morrison, Principal Consultant, CRU
Kenneth A. Rosen, Partner and Chair, Bankruptcy, Financial Reorganization & Creditors' Rights, Lowenstein Sandler LLP
Brian A. Habacivch, Principal, Commodities Management Group, Constellation Energy, An Exelon Company

14:15 - 15:00
Panel discussion: How to address business in a new trade environment

  • How significant is the risk of a trade war and what impact would it have on the economy and on steel demand?
  • When does trade defense become protectionism and harm demand?
  • Is US cost-competiveness likely to suffer as a result?
  • To what extent will AD duties deter steel imports?
  • Section 232 and other trade defense measure – likelihood and implications
  • How will current and proposed trade defense measure impact steel trade flows?

Josh Spoores, Principal Consultant, CRU
Philip K. Bell, President, Steel Manufacturers Association
Alan H. Price, Partner, Wiley Rein LLP
Richard Chriss, Executive Director, American Institute for International Steel

15:00 - 15:45
Risk management & FASB's targeted improvements to hedge accounting impact on steel consumers

  • Prioritizing exposure to price risk in your sales and purchasing functions
  • Mark to market reporting
  • Identifying and applying indices
  • Measuring market performance through benchmarking
  • Monitors and controls

Andre Marshall, President, Crunch Risk
Rishie Kumar, Vice President - Global Commodities Group, J.P. Morgan
Tim Stevenson, Founding Partner, Metal Edge Partners
Young-Jin Chang, Global Head of Metals, CME Group

16:15 - 17:00
NAFTA & Global Trade Flows: How is the global trade landscape changing and impacting the North American market?

  • How is China impacting global trade flows?
  • How will new regulations impact these trade flows?
  • Will NAFTA consumers be short of material due to trade limitations?
  • Where will companies source materials from going forward?

John Ball, General Manager, North America, CRU Ryan’s Notes
Lynn Lupori, Head of Metals Consulting, North America, CRU

17:00 - 17:30
China Insight: How successful will China's central government be in implementing environmental controls and supply side reforms?

  • The Chinese government is looking to cut an additional 164 Mt of capacity by 2021 to have a meaningful impact on the industry. What are the risks of not cutting enough vs. cutting too deep?
  • How likely are further stimulus packages in China at this year’s National Congress in light of April/May 2017 price collapse?  What impact could they have on raw materials and finished steel prices globally?
  • What is the outlook for Chinese sheet price and demand between 2018 and 2020?
  • What is China's capability in value added product manufacture and what does this mean for the US?

John Ball, General Manager, North America, CRU Ryan’s Notes
Chris Houlden, Research Manager, Semi-finish & Finished Steel, CRU

09:00 - 10:15
Panel discussion: Comparing steel market forecasts

  • Economic projections for the economy, energy, machinery, construction, infrastructure and automotive markets
  • What is the outlook for long production vs flat production?
  • Benchmarking US market performance against other steel markets – how long will US prices remain elevated and what is the outlook for imports?
  • Service centre stock building and de-stocking – analyzing stocks, shipments and receipts what impact will the service sector have on prices in 2018?
  • Commodity vs value added grades – Forecasting HR, CR, plate, seamless tube and long products
  • Forecasting the HDG and zinc market outlooks 

Chris Houlden, Research Manager, Semi-finish & Finished Steel, CRU
Josh Spoores, Principal Consultant, CRU
Curt Woodworth, CFA, Director, Equity Research, US Metals & Mining, Credit Suisse LLC
Alex Hacking, Director and Head of Americas Metals & Mining, Citi Research

10:15 - 10:40
What can North American steelmakers do to remain competitive at a global level?

Chris Houlden, Research Manager, Semi-finish & Finished Steel, CRU
Janice Bolen, Senior Process Engineer, Hatch

11:30 - 13:15
Panel discussion: Raw materials and steelmaking costs - what is needed for success?

  • What is the prognosis for bulk raw materials prices from 2018?
  • Steelmaking costs and cost competiveness
  • What was the cause of unusually low scrap prices in relation to hot metal in H1 2017? Is this a trend that is likely to become more frequent?
  • What is CRU’s base case cold metallic forecast?
  • China is increasing scrap consumption in steelmaking. Will the country need import scrap and what impact will this have?   

Josh Spoores, Principal Consultant, CRU
Sarah Macnaughton, Senior Consultant, CRU
Dr Joe Poveromo, President, Raw Materials & Ironmaking Consulting
Cyril Martinand, Division Manager – Procurement Energy & Iron Ore, ArcelorMittal USA LLC
Kevin Crary, President, Commercial Division, Scrap Metal Services
Stefan Einfalt, Chief Executive Officer, voestalpine Texas LLC