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Agenda

08:00 - 18:00
Site visit - Liberty Aluminium Dunkerque

07:30 Departure from Conference hotel

08.55:    Guests depart from London (Eurostar tickets to be booked by guests directly)

10.56:    Arrive in Calais (Second meeting opportunity for guests arriving from Europe)

11.15:    Bus departs Calais Eurotunnel

11.50:    Arrive at site

                Register, refreshments

12.00:    Welcome, introduction to site, safety briefing

13.00:    Lunch & networking

13.45:    Site Tour – Paste and Anode plant, Reduction plant (electrolysis), Casthouse

15.15:    Guests arrive back from tour

15.30:    Depart for Lille

17.35:    Eurostar from Lille to London

18.06:    Arrive at London





14:00 - 17:00
Workshop - Value Added Products

  • How will the on-going attractiveness of pre-consumer scrap drive future investment in secondary casting capacity for rolling mills and extruders in ROW? Will primary VAP demand suffer as a result?
  • How long will China continue to exercise restraint in NOT allowing primary-based VAP casthouse products  to be exported under guise of “semis”..not only getting around the primary export duty but collecting the semis rebates?
  • At what point does obsolete grade scrap begin to creep into casthouse melt formulation, as technology improvements allow low grade scraps to be upgraded and cleaned up to be used in slab, billets, PFA and rod?
  • Crushed 356 wheels stealing market share away from PFA in N America - What does the future hold for this substation?
  • Which specialised alloys are leading to more in-house casting?


Chair:
Gregory Wittbecker, Senior Analyst, CRU
:
Euan Sadden, Analyst, CRU
Yanchen Wang, Principal Consultant, Head of China Aluminium Market and Cost, CRU
Zaid Aljanabi, Principal Consultant, CRU

09:10 - 10:45
Keynote session - World aluminium markets

  • Has China done enough to address overcapacity?
  • What has happened as a result of the trade war, and why are Chinese exports continuing to boom?
  • The financialisation of the alumina market – what is the uptake going to be like?
  • What will be the future of recycled metal in demand growth? What will the scrap glut mean for primary metal? markets
  • Is the primary aluminium demand boom over?
  • Price and profitability – what is the outlook for investment?


Chair:
Ron Knapp, Secretary General, International Aluminium Institute
:
Tian Yong, Senior Vice President, Chalco
Paul Williams, Head of Analysis, CRU
Dr. Pascal Wagner, Senior Vice President, BU Global Products, Hydro Aluminium Rolled Products
Inga Simonenko, Head of Market Intelligence, RUSAL Marketing GmbH
Tolga Egrilmezer, Vice President, Sales and Marketing, Rio Tinto Aluminium

11:55 - 12:15
Future US supply




Doug Hilderhoff, Head of North America Aluminum, CRU

12:35 - 12:55
State of digitalization in the primary aluminium industry and how to speed things up




Antti Koulumies, Vice President - Aluminium Business Line, Metals, Energy and Water, Outotec

14:00 - 14:40
New Supply, New markets

14:00 - 14:20
New kid on the block: The next 1MT+ global greenfield smelter, supported by Israeli Gas”

Ofer Oberlander, Head of New Projects, Delek Group

14:20 - 14:40
Presentation to be announced

14:20 - 15:25
Demand outlook

  • Cantock – will the plastic backlash boost aluminium packaging?
  • Auto – Is a bounce back in automotive going to come?
  • Aluminium’s future in the EV market
  • Aluminium stewardship initiative
  • Turkish market outlook
  • Has the sustainability of aluminium been underplayed in construction?


Wan Ling, Principal Consultant, Aluminium & Assistant Chief Representative, CRU
Mark White, Technical Specialist - Light Weight Vehicle Structures, DSW Automotive
Erol Metin, Secretary-General, Turkish Aluminum Industrialists Association

15:55 - 17:10
Sustainability and recycling

  • China import ban – where will the surplus scrap go?
  • Will low grade scrap processing technology lead to primary demand displacement?
  • What are today’s limits to scrap usage?
  • How can the secondary sector survive with such tight margins?


Magdalena Garczynska, Recycling Director, European Aluminium
Prof. Geoff Scamans, Chief Scientific Officer, Innoval Technology
Will Savage, Business Development Director, Liberty Aluminium

09:00 - 10:30
Alumina and raw materials

  • The financialisation of the alumina market – Will this pricing mechanism prove successful?
  • Impact of Alunorte over the past months - Has the end come for Chinese alumina exports?
  • Guinea continues to dominate merchant bauxite growth
  • Outlook for petroleum pitch
  • The impact of IMO 2020 on freight rates - Price and market outlook for bauxite and alumina 


Duncan Hobbs, Research Director, Concord Resources Limited
Anthony Everiss, Senior Consultant, CRU
Andrew Wood, Group Executive Strategy & Development, Alumina Ltd

11:00 - 11:20
Aluminium: Don’t doubt the deficit

  • CRU estimates the aluminium market was in a record deficit in 2018
  • However, 50% of aluminium smelters globally were losing money in Q1 2019 and ingot premiums in Europe and Asia remain low and supply appears plentiful
  • How can smelters lose money when the aluminium market is in such deep deficit?
  • CRU details the underlying assumptions that have delivered record deficits
  • The deficit must also be put into the context of the surplus that was built during the financial crisis
  • A pinch point will come when inventories fall to critical levels, but when and what are the risks?


Eoin Dinsmore, Head of Primary & Products, Aluminium, CRU

11:20 - 12:30
Prices and premiums

  • Will the demand slowdown depress aluminium prices?
  • How much unreported stock is in the market?
  • LME backwardations – get ready for the big one!
  • LME/SHFE arbitrage – will it continue to depress Chinese and support exports?


Eoin Dinsmore, Head of Primary & Products, Aluminium, CRU
Xiao Fu, Head of Commodity Markets Strategy, BOCI Global Commodities

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