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Agenda

08:00 - 18:00
Site visit - Liberty Aluminium Dunkerque

08.00:    Meet with CRU representative once through passport control and security check
*Please note check in closes 30 minutes before departure

08.55:    Guests depart from London (Eurostar tickets to be booked by guests directly)

10.56:    Arrive in Calais (Second meeting opportunity for guests arriving from Europe)

11.15:    Bus departs Calais Eurotunnel

11.50:    Arrive at site

                Register, refreshments

12.00:    Welcome, introduction to site, safety briefing

13.00:    Lunch & networking

13.45:    Site Tour – Paste and Anode plant, Reduction plant (electrolysis), Casthouse

15.15:    Guests arrive back from tour

15.30:    Depart for Lille

17.35:    Eurostar from Lille to London

18.06:    Arrive back in London




14:00 - 17:00
Workshop - Value Added Products

 

  • Welcome and introduction
  • CRU price assessments and value added products (VAP)
  • The outlook for semis demand and implications for VAP demand 
  • How  much can scrap be utilised in VAP production and displace primary units?
  • China exports: how much will it take off demand outside China and will it export VAPs? 
  • VAP optimisation: A case study
  • VAP trade flows in era of tariff protectionism and implications for premiums?

Paul Williams, Head of Analysis, CRU
Scott Yarham, Prices Development Manager, CRU
Euan Sadden, Analyst, CRU
Gregory Wittbecker, Senior Analyst, CRU
Yanchen Wang, Principal Consultant, Head of China Aluminium Market and Cost, CRU
Zaid Aljanabi, Head of Aluminium, Consulting, CRU
Guillaume Osouf, Principal Analyst, CRU

09:10 - 10:45
Keynote session - World aluminium markets

  • Has China done enough to address overcapacity?
  • What has happened as a result of the trade war, and why are Chinese exports continuing to boom?
  • The financialisation of the alumina market – what is the uptake going to be like?
  • What will be the future of recycled metal in demand growth? What will the scrap glut mean for primary metal? markets
  • Is the primary aluminium demand boom over?
  • Price and profitability – what is the outlook for investment?

Moderator:
Ron Knapp, Secretary General, International Aluminium Institute
Tian Yong, Senior Vice President, Chalco
Inga Simonenko, Head of Market Intelligence, RUSAL Marketing GmbH
Tolga Egrilmezer, Vice President, Sales and Marketing, Rio Tinto Aluminium
Dr. Pascal Wagner, Senior Vice President, BU Global Products, Hydro Aluminium Rolled Products
Paul Williams, Head of Analysis, CRU

11:35 - 12:55
Economic and trade developments



Moderator:
Lais Santos, Analyst, CRU
11:35 - 11:55
International trade developments

Alan Price, Partner, Wiley Rein

11:55 - 12:15
Future US supply
Doug Hilderhoff, Head of North America Aluminum, CRU

12:15 - 12:35
Government support in the aluminium industry
Arnoud Willems, Partner, Sidley Austin

12:35 - 12:55
State of digitalization in the primary aluminium industry and how to speed things up



Moderator:
Lais Santos, Analyst, CRU
Antti Koulumies, Vice President - Aluminium Business Line, Metals, Energy and Water, Outotec

14:00 - 14:40
New Supply, New markets

Moderator:
Guillaume Osouf, Principal Analyst, CRU
14:00 - 14:20
New kid on the block: The next 1MT+ global greenfield smelter, supported by Israeli Gas
Ofer Oberlander, Head of New Projects, Delek Group

14:20 - 14:40
Azer Aluminium project presentation
Samira Javadova, Company Ambassador, AzerAluminium LLC

14:20 - 15:25
Demand outlook

  • Auto – Is a bounce back in automotive going to come?
  • Aluminium’s future in the EV market
  • Turkish market outlook
  • South East Asian market outlook

  • Moderator:
    Doug Hilderhoff, Head of North America Aluminum, CRU
    Erol Metin, Secretary-General, Turkish Aluminum Industrialists Association
    Mark White, Innovation Director, DSW Automotive
    Marius Baader, Executive Director, GDA - Gesamtverband der Aluminiumindustrie
    Wan Ling, Principal Consultant, Aluminium & Assistant Chief Representative, CRU

    15:55 - 17:10
    Sustainability and recycling

    • China import ban – where will the surplus scrap go?
    • Will low grade scrap processing technology lead to primary demand displacement?
    • What are today’s limits to scrap usage?
    • How can the secondary sector survive with such tight margins?
    • Has the sustainability of aluminium been underplayed in construction?
    • Will the plastic backlash boost aluminium packaging?

    Moderator:
    Will Savage, Business Development Director, Liberty Aluminium
    Gregory Wittbecker, Senior Analyst, CRU
    Prof. Geoff Scamans, Chief Scientific Officer, Innoval Technology
    Magdalena Garczynska, Recycling Director, European Aluminium
    Catherine Athènes, Vice President Group Sustainability and Public Affairs Europe, Constellium

    08:00 - 08:50
    Morning briefing - Brexit and the impact on aluminium



    Moderator:
    Paul Williams, Head of Analysis, CRU
    Simon MacVicker, Managing Director, Bridgnorth Aluminium Ltd
    Ryan Diggory, Senior Policy Advisor- International Trade Infrastructure and Materials, Department for Business, Energy & Industrial Strategy, Government of the United Kingdom
    Tom Jones, Chief Executive Officer, ALFED
    Eoin Dinsmore, Head of Primary & Products, Aluminium, CRU

    09:00 - 10:30
    Alumina and raw materials

    • The financialisation of the alumina market – Will this pricing mechanism prove successful?
    • Impact of Alunorte over the past months - Has the end come for Chinese alumina exports?
    • Guinea continues to dominate merchant bauxite growth
    • Outlook for petroleum pitch
    • The impact of IMO 2020 on freight rates - Price and market outlook for bauxite and alumina 

    Moderator:
    Zaid Aljanabi, Head of Aluminium, Consulting, CRU
    Caio Moreira van Deursen, Process Engineer, Researcher from Escola Politécnica da USP
    Ross Cunningham, Cost Economist, CRU
    Andrew Wood, Group Executive Strategy & Development, Alumina Ltd
    Anthony Everiss, Senior Consultant, CRU

    11:00 - 11:20
    Aluminium: Don’t doubt the deficit

    • CRU estimates the aluminium market was in a record deficit in 2018
    • However, 50% of aluminium smelters globally were losing money in Q1 2019 and ingot premiums in Europe and Asia remain low and supply appears plentiful
    • How can smelters lose money when the aluminium market is in such deep deficit?
    • CRU details the underlying assumptions that have delivered record deficits
    • The deficit must also be put into the context of the surplus that was built during the financial crisis
    • A pinch point will come when inventories fall to critical levels, but when and what are the risks?

    Eoin Dinsmore, Head of Primary & Products, Aluminium, CRU

    11:20 - 13:00
    Prices and premiums

    • Will the demand slowdown depress aluminium prices?
    • How much unreported stock is in the market?
    • LME backwardations – get ready for the big one!
    • LME/SHFE arbitrage – will it continue to depress Chinese and support exports?
    • Completing the LME Aluminium products offering: premiums, alumina & initiatives

    Moderator:
    Sheena Patel, Senior Consultant, CRU
    Duncan Hobbs, Research Director, Concord Resources Limited
    Colin Hamilton, Managing Director, Commodities Research, BMO Capital Markets
    Christian Mildner, Head of Corporate Sales, London Metal Exchange
    Xiao Fu, Head of Commodity Markets Strategy, BOCI Global Commodities
    Peter Archbold, Head of Natural Resources & Commodities, Corporates, Fitch Ratings

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