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Agenda

09:00 - 12:00
Cast-house workshop

  • Cast-house shapes costs and optimising smelter product mix
  • Ingot premiums – the only way is up from here on in?
  • Valued added shapes – will billet upcharges remain under pressure; what lies in store for other shapes upcharges?


Speaker:
Eoin Dinsmore, Principal Consultant, Aluminium, CRU
Kelly Driscoll, Managing Consultant, CRU
Paul Williams, Head of Aluminium, CRU
Zaid Aljanabi, Principle Consultant, CRU

09:00 - 10:40
Keynote session

09:00
Sustainability: Driving value creation
  • Examining the growth potential for certified sustainable aluminium products – which new product lines can they gain market share in?
  • Will customers pay a premium for such products? Or does the value truly lie in market creation?
  • Can China hit its C02 emissions targets under the Paris Agreement? Will environmental policy and public opinion cap Chinese expansion?
  • Environmental stewardship in the smelting, refining and mining sectors – what are the corporate and stakeholder advantages that leadership brings?
  • Industry 4.0 – analysing technological and digital advances and their impact on the aluminium sector
Chair:
Ron Knapp, Secretary General, International Aluminium Institute
Speaker:
Sanjeev Gupta, Executive Chairman, Liberty House Group
Lu Dongliang, Executive Director & Senior Vice President, Chalco
Katherine Fog, Vice President - Corporate Strategy & Analysis/Energy, Norsk Hydro ASA
Tolga Egrilmezer, Vice President, Sales and Marketing, Rio Tinto Aluminium
Oleg Mukhamedshin, Deputy CEO, Director for Strategy, Business Development and Financial Markets, RUSAL

10:35
Questions and answers

11:10 - 12:20
Session 1: Economic and trade developments

11:10
Panel discussion: Barriers to Chinese exports: Will the WTO case re-shape global aluminium trade?
Moderator:
Paul Williams, Head of Aluminium, CRU
Panellists:
Michael A. Bless, President, Chief Executive Officer and Director, Century Aluminum
Alan Price, Partner, Wiley Rein

11:55
How will geo-political uncertainty impact the economic outlook?
  • Are we heading for a sharp downturn in China?
  • What is the likelihood of a renimbi devaluation?
  • Will the Trump administration cause teh dollar to strengthen?
  • How much should we fear American protectionism?
  • What are the prospects for EMs?
  • Is the oil market rebalancing?
Speaker:
Andrew Kenningham, Global Chief Economist, Capital Economics

12:20 - 13:15
Session 2: Advanced recycling

12:20
Panel discussion: Opening the market to more post-consumer scrap - examining developments in collection, sorting and processing
Moderator:
Will Savage, Chief Executive, ALFED

14:30 - 15:50
Session 2: Advanced recycling continued

14:30
Design for recycling
  • Key challenges and opportunities in aluminium recycling
  • Exploring advancement in product design and recycling efficiency
Speaker:
Susanne Rothstein, Executive Vice President, Communications & CSR, SAPA
Erika Ahlqvist, Executive Vice President, Communication & CSR, SAPA

14:55
Are we entering a period of oversupply in the bauxite market?
  • Outlining the key supplier risks in the bauxite sector
  • What is the long-term outlook for freight rates – how susceptible are Chinese alumina refineries to price increases?
Speaker:
Anthony Everiss, Senior Consultant, CRU

15:20
Outlook for the alumina market – heading for consolidation?
  • Is refining likely to consolidate while mining fragments?
  • Key issues for refineries – raw materials, sustainability and China
  • Update on pricing issues
Speaker:
Andrew Wood, Group Executive Strategy & Development, Alumina Limited

15:45
Question and answers

16:20 - 17:35
Session 3: Energy and power

16:20
Thermal coal – is the era of Chinese cost-deflation over?
  • Forecasting the outlook for thermal coal prices
  • Chinese policy and its impact on thermal coal production
  • Why does the thermal coal price matter to the Chinese aluminum sector?
Speaker:
Yanchen Wang, Senior Consultant, CRU

16:45
The Paris agreement - what is really going to happen?
  • The 2015 Paris Climate Change Agreement: the framework, the politics, and the dynamics of implementation 2017-2025
  • Implications for energy-intensive sectors, such as aluminium – especially on competitiveness between regions, and between materials
Speaker:
Christopher Beauman, Senior Adviser, European Bank for Reconstruction and Development

17:10
Fundamentally changing the way primary aluminium smelters consume energy
  • New EnPot technology enables smelters to vary consumption, by up to + or - 30%
  • Enabling semlters to move from being dead-end users of power to becoming an integral part of the energy grid
 Allow smelters to take advantage of the incrested use of generation from renewable energy sourcees
 Enable new relationships and contracts to be formed between smelters, governments and power generators
 Help nations achieve CO2 emissions targets under COP21
Speaker:
Geoff Matthews, Vice President, Energia Potior

17:35
Close of day one

09:00 - 10:30
Session 4: Prices and preminium

09:00
Panel discussion: Prices and premiums outlook
  • Are we reaching an inflection point and will aluminium prices fall?
  • Can the US cope with being the largest importer of aluminium – where next for the US premium?
  • What do US import requirements and the poor economics of holding metal, mean for LME spreads?
  • SHFE the new benchmark? Will the SHFE price have a greater role in global pricing?
Moderator:
Zaid Aljanabi, Principal Consultant, CRU
Panellists:
Michael Insulán, Senior Market Analyst, Eurasian Resources Group
Max Layton, Managing Director, Commodities Research, Global Investment Research, Goldman Sachs
David Wilson, Director, Metals Research and Strategy, Citi Research
Marco Georgiou, Managing Consultant, Aluminium, CRU
Vivienne Lloyd, Base Metals Analyst, Macquarie

11:00 - 13:15
Session 5: Rolled products and China through the supply chain

Moderator:
Jean-Babtiste Lucas, Aluminium Industry Executive,

11:00
SMOG – Will environmentally led cuts put China into deficit?
Speaker:
Yanchen Wang, Senior Consultant, CRU

11:30
China’s rolled aluminium industry and its impact on the global market
  • Development of the Chinese rolled aluminium industry
  • Future trends and possible development scenarios
  • Granges position as a global rolled aluminium actor
  • How Granges strategically position its China business
Speaker:
Torbjorn Sternsjo, Senior Vice President Technology & Business Development, Gränges AB

11:50
The influence of Chinese rollers on competition in Europe and Turkey
  • China as seen from the perspective of the European rolling sector
  • Customer’s perspective
  • How can we compete? Assan Alüminyum as a case study)
Speaker:
Göksal Güngör, General Manager, Assan Alüminyum

12:10
Topic to be announced

12:30
Introducing the Chinese 'scrap cap'
 Which factors will limit scrap's share of total metal required in China?
 Why is recycled aluminium's share of non-castings demand is falling?
 What are the implications?
Speaker:
Eoin Dinsmore, Principal Consultant, Aluminium, CRU

12:50
Steady as she goes or all change? Prospects for China's economy and aluminium consuming sectors
Speaker:
Grant Colquhoun, Group Economist, CRU

13:00
Questions and answers

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