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Agenda

09:30 - 11:00
CEO Panel - Pioneering a new approach:

  • Have the expected market deficits been delayed to the mid-2020s or even beyond?  In the past, large market deficits and surpluses have been forecast for the future but have often not materialised in reality. Why is this and will history repeat itself?”
  • Mining costs are rising once again.  What factors are driving the increase?  How far will the 90th percentile rise in the next 5 years? What, if anything, can be done to mitigate the upward trend?  Are there technological advances which could make a significant difference to operating costs?
  • Environmental stewardship – the role and responsibilities of copper mining and production in the future in a world with increasingly stringent environment constraints and risks - to what extent are customers exhibiting a preference and a greater emphasis on traceability and recycling?
  • The final word – Keynote speakers share their key opportunity and challenge for the copper market in 2019


12:15 - 12:35
Managing risks in capital projects:

  • Understanding risk, allocating it sensibly, quantifying the cost of selling this risk, requires more rigour than many owners have been prepared to spend. 
  • This task requires alignment amongst the major stakeholders in the project and shared insight into the overall risk profile before the risks start to demand more cash or frustrate cash flow from the asset
  • Stakeholders should be encouraged to view these risks through the lens of others; so balanced risk management plans result. Too often imbalance is designed into the execution strategy, which leads to turbulence during the subsequent execution phase.


14:45 - 15:45
Exploring key opportunities and threats to copper demand:

 

  • Energy Storage
  • Renewables
  • Substitution
  • Smart Homes

16:15 - 17:30
Outlook and opportunities in the mining equipment and services sector:

  • What are the technological changes in the industry that suppliers need to respond to?
  • How are the needs of the modern mine changing?
  • How do local suppliers grow their market share at home and abroad and what can governments do to support this?

14:30 - 17:00
Future brownfield and green filed expansion challenges

 

-       Transitioning from open-cut to underground

  • By 2050, 50% of the world’s copper will come from underground operations, most of which will be non-selective mass mining methods such as block caves
  • Materials handling technology for such deep, high tonnage operations will test current technology for capacity and reliability for bring the ore from the production levels to surface

-       Remote, Isolated and hostile operational environments

  • Most of the easily discoverable major orebodies have already been found and exploited, so exploration programmes must venture into unexplored regions to seek new lodes
  • Mongolia is a landlocked country, accessible through China and Russia, with no well-developed infrastructure corridors for large material movements
  • The long, cross border logistics corridors involved require constant management in order to deliver equipment and materials on site within the ROS dates
  • The prevailing climatic conditions impose additional risks and restrictions on the construction of the mine, with temperatures dropping to -40°C in winter which affects exposure limits for the workforce and certain construction activities
  • The local engineering and project delivery industry is still maturing, so the project requires a multi-region execution strategy that draws upon 9 separate delivery centres, spanning 13 time zones and 21 nationalities employed; management of an integrated schedule is complex and requires a delivery focussed approach

-       Emerging Economy

  • Immature craft labour training programmes and challenging working conditions with multi-lingual local workforce, demand a next level commitment to safe construction techniques must be applied
  • The HSE culture, approach and methodology must address cultural issues and an unsophisticated appreciation of risk and consequence   
  • The operation is one of the largest employers in Mongolia and whereas there are multifaceted benefits, there are industrial relations related issues that require constant dialogue
  • The lengthy delivery period will require replenishment and transition planning for the workforce and management of “project fatigue” must be actively managed to keep the workforce motivated and focussed


09:05 - 10:05
CFO Panel Discussion: Finance, costs & projects

  • How could the way that projects are financed in the future change - Exploring alternatives to traditional project CAPEX and finance models

11:50 - 13:00
Beyond the base case – Copper price under different market scenarios:

 

  • Chinese stimulus measures: Most analysts, including CRU, have been expecting China’s economic transition to result in a marked deceleration in growth of Chinese copper consumption.  But despite strong evidence that the Chinese economy is slowing, might government stimulus measures once again support copper demand growth? 
  • Technical challenges impact mine output: The four largest projects forecast to commission over the next 5 years (Grasberg Block Cave, Chuquicamata Underground, Oyu Tolgoi Phase 2, and El Teniente New Mining Level), will use block cave mining methods.  This technique has a reputation for being technically challenging and could affect ramp-up and production, resulting in slower growth in mine output. 
  • Trade war escalates: Despite the apparent truce agreed at the G-20 meeting in Argentina, it is possible that trade war tensions could escalate again denting GDP growth.
  • Full Chinese scrap import ban from end-2020: The Chinese category 7 scrap ban has had less of an impact on the Chinese market in 2018 than initially expected.  However, a full scrap ban could be another matter, reducing Chinese imports of copper-in-scrap by over 1.5Mt from 2017 levels.  How would China react?  Are there enough processing plants outside China to convert the scrap into other forms of copper for the Chinese market? Or would the ban encourage the development of a modern, automated, large-scale scrap generation and processing industry in China?